Framework for my future blog posts

1 Navigation note
1.1 Each separate idea has its separate line
1.1.1 Additional clarification or specifics are made in sub-lines
1.1.2 Sometimes the sub-lines will contain argumentation underlining or undermining the above statement
1.2 If you feel that the you are comfortable with the idea or do not care for additional clarification you may continue rearing the next numerical consequence
1.3 Sometimes correspondence to other ideas laid down in the paper (1.1.1.) may be given
1.3.1 Those are supposed to make stronger argument
1.3.2 or explain mutual dependencies
2 Th!nk3: Sustainable Development and Global Cooperation, focus on the Developing World
2.1 It is blogging competition, which will focus on the former topics
2.2 I am interested in joining it, because
2.2.1 The issue is challenging mainly because if its apparent impossibility
2.2.2 If I am the only entrée I may get the chance to travel to a developing country
3 This blog post will try to put a frame around the issues I will explore in the following 20 posts, because
3.1 First the issues are many and complex
3.2 Secondly the solutions of one problem is most likely going to exacerbate other (creating more jobs fast will impact negatively the environment)
3.3 Thirdly the parties willing to take the bill are in a very short supply
3.4 I have always liked structured texts
3.5 My perspective readers (both of them) should have an idea where the entire blog is going
4 Technological challenges – the first thing we need to solve is creating and transferring technologies
4.1 Technology is the cornerstone of our lifestyle since the invention of fire
4.2 To be realistic it would be unthinkable to talk about any king of sustainability if the technologies we developed and use are unsustainable
4.3 I will concentrate in three areas that need urgent technological solutions diverging decisively from the current trend
4.4 Energy
4.4.1 Currently the vast majority of energy needs are met by fossil fuels
4.4.2 The available alternative energy sources are either unreliable or inefficient
4.4.3 In any case the need for energy will grow in the next decades
4.5 Transportation
4.5.1 As for now humanity is almost exclusively reliant on internal combustion engines
4.5.2 That requires lots and lots of oil or ethanol, produced by deforestation
4.5.3 Alternatives based on electricity will increase the demand for the latter and the supply will fail
4.6 Food production
4.6.1 Despite the statistical data provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture I will go along with the World Food Programme and argue that there is not enough food to go around
4.6.2 The production capacity of various nations is seriously hampered y the lack of liquidity in the sector, due to the world economic crises (which is far from over by the way)
4.6.3 The use of genetically modified crops in their current form is not the best answer as illustrated by the experience of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra (part of the so called India suicide belt)
4.6.3.1 Intellectual property of genomes is not helping bankrupt farmers produce more
4.6.3.2 Higher yield and draught resilient crops are hard to find, so global warming is at least one step ahead in the game
5 Financing the solutions
5.1 I intend to pay special interest to the monetary side of the issues.
5.2 As previously said (3.3.) those with deep pockets are not enthusiastic enough to part with their cash
5.2.1 One reason being the very poor state of public management and almost certain waste of public funds (6)
5.2.2 The state of western economies is intensively bad – economic stagnation, accounting irregularities, structural unemployment, large deficits, over-leverage of financial institutions, capital and stock market disfunctionalities are only some of the problems
5.3 The developing countries will need to pay for the bulk of measures with their own resources
5.3.1 That usually means environmental degradation
5.3.2 The cost of keeping environment intact has human dimension (7)
5.4 Financing also contains the issues of cash-flow, wage control and economic models
5.4.1 Even if a project – lets say cold fusion – is promising and if realised may bring enormous returns there might still be lack of funding in the present moment.
5.4.2 Wage control is closely tided with inflation control mechanisms in general. Those are difficult to apply by developed nations in the best of times. We have already lived through those.
5.4.3 The economic model reflects the freedom of the market in general, including freedom of establishment, government regulations, etc.
5.5 I will try to explore the financing aspects of the listed problems and proposed solutions in the next posts
6 Managing the implementation
6.1 The quality of public management and administrative capacity are often referred as the Achilles' heel of the developing world
6.2 In my post I will try to concentrate on the right of good governance and the mechanisms for its application
6.2.1 It is clear that structural instruments – such as the proposed mechanisms – are not a solution by themselves and specific conditions for their implementation are needed
6.2.2 Key factor for good governance is also the will of both the executive and the judiciary – both creating substantial pressure to block reforms
6.3 Furthermore I will look at education and its role towards building trustworthy administrative bodies
6.4 As well as the mechanisms the role of trade arbitrages (court and out-of-court settlement process) is basic for the public management and deserves some attention.
7 Keeping biodiversity diverse
7.1 The main problem with the current model of economic development – most goods and services are based on resources diggd out or harvested away from the environment. In some cases both.
7.2 Hence if the economy grows (what is rest of) the environment shrinks
7.3 To make it even more challenging deforestation, climate change and over-farming of rural land are conducive to economic calamities
7.4 My following posts will describe possible theoretical ways out of that situation. However I should warn my kind readers I am not optimistic on that issue.
8 Jobs and demographics
8.1 The general observation over new technological solutions is that they increase automatism and reduce direct employment in the field they are realised
8.2 Even more so in the next decade or two, where innovations are created in market conditions of high labour costs
8.3 The demographic of the developed world worries me since the medium age is 25 and below.
8.3.1 Lots of disfranchised, unemployed teenagers and young adults may create dangerous instability in the entire social structure
8.3.2 The large part of the population has not yet reached fertile age, when they do the overcrowding will become real problem. If not manages carefully (with respect to human rights I still think of Singapore style birth control) that may cause bloody conflicts and civil wars.
8.4 Creating jobs and maintaining high living standard for millions of young adults will require resources (7.2) and there is only one place those may come from.
8.5 New jobs on mass scale would require either super-centralised state (8.5.1) or excellent public management, plus good supply of liquidity (8.5.2)
8.5.1 China quasi-market model dictatorship appears to manage reasonable well its citizens and resources. There are some severe drawbacks naturally
8.5.1.1 Cheap, fast and seizable economic growth comes at the cost of great environmental degradation
8.5.1.2 Their export-driven and carefully structured semi-government controlled economy is more prone to bubbles and busts
8.5.1.3 The political centralization may create hidden frictions with hard to contemplate effects
8.5.1.4 Cultural specificities make the model hard to export
8.5.2 In market economies the key for creating jobs fast is creating the right conditions
8.5.2.1 Those include stable legal framework
8.5.2.2 Equality in the implementation of the former and
8.5.2.3 Just commercial disputes resolutions
8.5.2.4 Access to capital by entrepreneurs is also needed, so they can develop their ideas
8.6 Last, but not least the quality/quantity of jobs will be relative to education and technology penetration levels in the specific society
9 Tracking paths away from consumption society
9.1 It appears that in order to protect the environment we need to distance ourselves from the consumption habits of the past
9.2 That will not be easy nor fast, however if every human enjoys the goods and services the average westerner does, we will need 8 to 10 more planets.
9.3 Though I have not researched that issue in great detail yet, I could hint at Baudrillard
10 Moral responsibility, financial responsibility and collateral damage
10.1 So are we trying to safe some people from themselves, just because we know what's better for them?
10.2 If my money are used to alleviate someone from poverty, who will be accountable for misuse or embezzlement? Would my money be used in effect to destroy what is left from the natural environment?
10.3 When outside intervention is applied it tends to shift the established balance and stablishments are usually well-organised
11 The point of my blog is to bring more clarity to the aims of the development and their side-effects
11.1 Just framing problems that everyone knows about is likely not going to help a big deal
11.2 Though I will be trying to speculate on realistic solutions, and despite my great arrogance it is unlikely I will be able to find all of them in the course of my posts.
11.3 What is important in my view is to abandon the search for the philosophical stone – artefact that creates gold and elixir of life simultaneously. Many problems are paradoxical in their nature, simply because they have been framed with incompatible terms.
11.4 Talking about what we want to do, have the ability to do and actually would do can contribute greatly in clarifying a strategy for dealing with the problems – hence reduce waste, uncertainty, mixed signals and most importantly unnecessary suffering.
12 Millennium development goals
12.1 In general those are lost. There is no realistic chance they will be realised in the next decade, yet alone in 5 years.
12.1.1 End poverty and hunger – the World Food Organization is suggesting the people needing food aid will dramatically increase in the next few years. With commodities inflation (5.2.2) on the horizon it is not getting any better.
12.1.2 Universal education – the medium age of people in Africa is 20 years, South East Asia 24, India 25. That presents great many pupils in areas where the basic educational infrastructure is not in place.
12.1.3 Gender equality – in Europe men receive higher compensation than women for the same jobs.
12.1.4 Child health – most of the children mortality appears in Africa and SE Asia. Despite the progresses archived lack of financial resources restricts preventive care and the gaols will not be achieved.
12.1.5 Maternal health – again not enough money and poor living conditions are proving much harder to fight, despite the valiant efforts of many people.
12.1.6 Combat HIV/AIDS – in my opinion that is achievable goal.
12.1.7 Environmental sustainability – no way. The greenhouse emissions are rising, Brazil is cutting down its forests, slums are getting poorer and sustainability is far off dream.
12.1.8 Global partnership – on that issue I have only one comment - the Copenhagen summit
12.2 Despite the evident frustration of the failure, there is a necessity to asses the main reason for it. I will try to give my interpretation.
13 Ending on optimistic note
13.1 I think we are simply destined to succeed
13.2 Failure will be destructive for both the developed and developing world, so we do not have much of a choice
13.3 The precise manner in which sustainability will be achieve may differ, but at the end we will get there
14 Thank you for reading my blog